Winter wheat crops appear to be in good shape around the world, but there are some dormant concerns in one key region.
Dmitry Patrushev, Russia’s deputy prime minister, recently told reporters that 97 per cent of Russia’s winter wheat crop was in normal condition as of Feb. 5 compared to 87 per cent at the same time last year.
“These are very good results,” he said.
SovEcon is forecasting 83.8 million tonnes of Russian wheat production in 2026-27 as yields fall back to average levels.
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That would be a significant drop from the 90.9 million tonnes produced in 2025-26.
WHY IT MATTERS: All eyes in the wheat market are focused on the condition of the world’s winter wheat crops.
SovEcon estimates that Russian farmers planted 38.53 million acres of winter wheat, a 1.3 per cent drop from last year. Ukraine planted 12.84 million acres, a four per cent increase.
“Overall crop conditions are good both in Russia and Ukraine,” SovEcon analyst Andrey Sizov said in an email.
“A recent cold snap most likely didn’t lead to any winterkill but improved snow cover, which would help plants at the start of vegetation.”
Stateside
DTN lead analyst Rhett Montgomery was wondering if a January cold snap hurt the fortunes of the U.S. winter wheat crop, but that does not appear to be the case.
“It is still looking fairly good across the U.S.,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released winter wheat crop ratings for select states on Feb. 4.
The Kansas crop was rated 61 per cent good to excellent. There were no ratings for Texas and Oklahoma, which are the second and third largest winter wheat producers.
However, only 19 per cent of Montana’s crop was rated good to excellent.
The January cold snap did not get much ink in the state crop progress reports, but another issue did.
“Drought and dryness were mentioned in almost every key (winter wheat) growing state,” said Montgomery.
The U.S. Drought Monitor estimates that 43 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat area is experiencing some level of drought heading into spring.
Montgomery said the “green-up” period is usually March or April.
“If we don’t start seeing some reversal of that drought then, we could have some issues as we move into summer,” he said.
Farmers in the U.S. planted 32.99 million acres of winter wheat, including 23.5 million acres of hard red winter wheat. Montgomery said that is the sixth or seventh smallest winter wheat crop since 1909.
Supply vs. demand
The world doesn’t need a lot more wheat.
World wheat ending stocks outside of China and India are estimated at 135.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, according to the USDA.
That would be the largest stocks in eight years.
Fortunately, global demand has been strong. The USDA is forecasting 900 million bushels of exports for the U.S.
Montgomery thinks that is attainable, given that export commitments were running at 18 per cent above last year’s levels as of the end of January.
Another positive sign for the wheat market is that the USDA slightly decreased its global production number in the February WASDE report, the first time since the August report where there wasn’t an increase.
