Agriculture Canada breeds varieties grown on 80 per cent of Canada’s wheat fields. A new industry report says that system is no longer sustainable — and without a transition plan, some smaller crops could quietly disappear from Prairie fields.
It’s obvious to Rob Graf, and many others in Canada’s grain industry, that the country needs a new system for developing cereal crop varieties — one that attracts private investment while preserving public programs for crops too small to interest a company’s bottom line.
Graf is a winter wheat breeder who spent 35 years in public plant science, retiring from Agriculture Canada in 2022. He knows better than most what’s at risk.
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“One of the things that concerns me (is) those crops that have lower acreage. How are those going to be funded? How are new varieties going to be developed?” he said.
WHY IT MATTERS: Grain farmers will soon need answers to Graf’s questions. A February report from the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition says the status quo — a public breeding system dominated by Agriculture Canada — is no longer a viable path forward. Federal plans to close research centres and lay off scientists are accelerating the timeline for change.
For decades, growers have relied on Agriculture Canada scientists to develop the latest varieties of spring wheat, durum and other cereals. The coalition’s February report found that Ag Canada varieties are grown on about 80 per cent of all wheat fields in Canada every year.
“It’s clear that the status quo is not a viable path forward,” says Jocelyn Velestuk, Canadian Wheat Research Coalition chair.
The public approach has delivered strong varieties to farmers, but in the last 15 years, the system has grown progressively weaker. It will soon be further undermined as the federal government plans to close research centres and lay off employees in its science and technology branch.
There are real-world examples of what happens when government stops investing in crop breeding. Flax is the clearest cautionary tale.
About 20 years ago, there were three flax breeding programs in Canada. Now, there’s one at the University of Saskatchewan. Without the breeders to improve yields, flax acres on the Prairies collapsed.
1.9M acres
Flaxseed seeded in 2005
620,000 acres
Flaxseed seeded in 2025
Other factors contributed to flax’s decline — competition from the Black Sea region chief among them — but poorly funded breeding programs and flat yields didn’t help.
What a new system could look like
Creating a new system to fund cereal breeding will not be easy. But a transition needs to happen, particularly for spring wheat, said Richard Cuthbert, a former wheat breeder with Agriculture Canada in Swift Current, Sask.
The public breeding system is currently handicapped by an insufficient number of test sites for small plot trials — sites that should cover a range of growing conditions across Western Canada. Without those sites and the related data, developing a competitive spring wheat variety is extremely difficult.
The crops that could fall through the cracks
Graf spent the bulk of his career working on winter wheat — a crop seeded on 300,000 to 350,000 acres on the Prairies. That is a small fraction of the 19 million acres of spring wheat grown in Canada, and a tiny sliver of the 65 million acres of all Prairie crops.
Winter wheat covers the soil through fall and spring, offering real environmental benefits — erosion control, early ground cover, reduced spring runoff. But its small acreage makes it a poor candidate for private investment.
“Will anybody be interested in developing winter wheat? We simply don’t know,” Graf said.
For now, the question is hypothetical — Agriculture Canada still has a winter wheat breeding program. But Graf’s concern applies to any specialty or low-acreage crop that lacks the commercial scale to attract private investment once the public system retreats.
“What we really need is a system where private and public can co-exist,” Graf said.
Key takeaways
- Agriculture Canada varieties cover 80 per cent of Canada’s wheat fields — but that dominance is built on a system the industry itself says in no longer sustainable.
- The federal government plans to close research centres and cut scientists, accelerating the timeline for change.
- Flax acreage fell 67 per cent over 20 years — partly a result of underfunded breeding. That pattern could repeat in other crops.
- Low-acreage crops like winter wheat may not attract private investment, creating a gap no one has a plan to fill yet.
- Industry leaders say the future requires private and public breeding to co-exist — but what that looks like is still unknown.
Read the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition’s February 2026 report.
