ustralia is set to reap a higher-quality harvest this year, although yields will be lower, analysts predict.
A Reuters poll of 13 analysts pegs wheat production at around 24 million tonnes in the marketing year to September 2012, short of the record 26.3 million tonnes reaped in 2010-11. Last year, La Nińa rains in eastern Australia resulted in a wet harvest, which cranks up in November. The rains boosted output but downgraded quality to general purpose or feed wheat grades.
In Western Australia, the country’s top grain-exporting state, improved rainfall has some analysts predicting the harvest might top eight million tonnes. Drought cut the state’s crop to around 4.7 million tonnes last season.
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The median estimate of analysts puts exports at 18.29 million tonnes in the marketing year that ends on Sept. 30, 2011, compared with 13.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.
Analysts and traders warned that conditions could easily change. Baking temperatures, lack of spring rain or a mice plague are the chief risks.
“We are in that tricky time which is August/September when temperatures are warming up, so getting rainfall when it is needed becomes critical,” said grain marketing advisor Scott Olsen.
