Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — An expected increase in Canadian lentil and pea exports in 2024/25 is unlikely to result in higher prices, as increased production should cause the stocks-to-use ratios to widen.
Canada grew 2.6 million tonnes of lentils in 2024/25, according to Statistics Canada data, which was up by about 800,000 tonnes on the year. Of that total, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates red lentils at 1.6 million tonnes and green lentils at 700,000 tonnes.
AAFC left its call on lentil exports for 2024/25 unchanged at 2.1 million tonnes in its October supply/demand report released Oct. 21. That compares with 1.7 million tonnes exported in 2023/24. India, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and Turkey are all expected to be top destinations.
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However, lentil ending stocks are forecast to grow to 475,000 tonnes, which compares with only 165,000 tonnes the previous year and would mark the largest carryout since 2019. AAFC estimates the stocks-to-use ratio for lentils to rise to 20 per cent in 2024/25 from only nine per cent in 2023/24.
The pea stocks-to-use ratio is also expected to increase on the year, rising from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, according to AAFC estimates. Pea exports are forecast to see little change from the 2.4 million tonnes reported in 2023/24, but production was higher. AAFC forecasts pea ending stocks at 450,000 tonnes. That would be down by 50,000 from the September estimate but still up by 50 per cent on the year.
Large green lentils are currently trading in the 57.5 to 60 cents per pound range in Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data, showing an improvement of about seven cents per bushel on the high end over the past month. However, that compares with the highs of the past year near 80 cents per pound. Red lentils top out at 33.5 cents per pound, moving up by four cents since mid-September.
Green peas delivered to the elevator are trading at roughly C$14.50 to C$18.50 per bushel, with yellow peas in the C$9.50 to C$11.50 per bushel area. The top end bids for both increased by a dollar over the past month but remain below the year-ago levels.
