The European Commission expects 2023-24 oilseed crops to increase by seven per cent from the previous year to a record 33.6 million tonnes, mainly because of a larger area sown, it said March 30.
In its short-term outlook, the EU executive said that attractive prices during the sowing period and mild conditions during winter had boosted the rapeseed area to an expected five-year high of six million hectares (15 million acres.)
Rapeseed production will rise one per cent year on year and be 15 per cent above the five-year average at 19.8 million tonnes, it predicted.
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A temporary exemption from the obligation to fallow part of arable land and a possible switch from maize in drought-affected regions could lead to a rise in the sunflower area next season to 4.8 million hectares (12 million acres), up 10 per cent on the five-year average.
Sunflower production, assuming average yields, is expected to reach a record 10.9 million tonnes, up 18 per cent year on year.
The area sown with soybeans, which is a smaller oilseed crop in the EU, was seen rising by 6.4 per cent above the five-year average to one million hectares (2.5 million acres).
EU vegetable oil and oilseed meal production is also expected to hit new highs at 17.2 million tonnes for oils and 30.9 million tonnes for meal, the Commission said, without giving details.
As a result, EU net imports of these products are forecast to be lower than in 2022-23, it said.
The European Commission also raised its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in the current 2022-23 season to 36 million tonnes from the 32 million projected a month ago, putting it up 23 per cent on last season.
In balance sheets made available on its website March 30, the commission also lifted its production estimate for the 2022 soft wheat usable production to 127 million tonnes from the 126 million seen in February and 130 million in 2021-22.
EU soft wheat stocks at the end of the season June 30 were now expected at 14.5 million tonnes, down from the 17.1 million tonnes seen last month, as its higher crop estimate failed to compensate for the increased projected exports. Last year’s soft wheat ending stocks stood at 16.6 million tonnes.
In maize, the commission also raised its forecast of EU production in 2022-23 to 55.5 million tonnes from the 52.1 million seen last month, but the crop was still sharply lower than the 72.7 million tonnes recorded last season after a severe drought damaged crops in many parts of the bloc.
In contrast, it cut EU maize imports in 2022-23 to 21 million tonnes from the 23 million last month.
In oilseeds, the commission cut its 2022-23 production estimate to 19.3 million tonnes from the 19.6 million last month but still well above the 17 million last season. It also cut its estimate of EU rapeseed imports in 2022-23 to 4.5 million tonnes from 5.6 million tonnes last month and last year.
The commission released first estimates for cereal production in 2023-24. Assuming average weather, it forecasts 2023 soft wheat production in the EU at 130.9 million tonnes, barley at 54.2 million tonnes and maize at 65 million.
