Last issue’s weather forecast — or rather, weather outlook — turned out pretty good. We saw colder-than-average temperatures for the most part and we saw a parade of Alberta clippers that brought clouds and occasional light and blowing snow every couple of days. The clippers were not as strong as we saw back in February and hopefully that is a sign of a possible change in our weather pattern.
As you know, if you have been following my forecasts, we have been stuck in a mostly northwesterly flow for several months now. The weather models are showing this pattern slowly transitioning to a more westerly flow, to possibly a southwesterly flow, late in the forecast period. This means we should see mild weather move in, but it also opens the door to strong Colorado lows.
This forecast period will begin with a weak-pressure pattern across much of Western Canada. As the strong northwesterly flow transitions to a westerly flow, expect a mix of sun and clouds on most days, with the occasional flurry as weak pulses move through. Daytime highs will be in the -2 to -5 C range with overnight lows falling to around -15 C.
Things then become interesting over the weekend and into the first half of the week of March 21. The weather models show a strong Colorado low developing and then pushing northeastward late in the weekend and into the early part of next week. Confidence is very low with this system at this point, but should it develop, we will need to keep an eye on it.
A few scenarios could play out with this system. It could stay to our south, which would keep us on the cool side but dry. It could give a glancing blow with a few centimetres of snow and some wind along with continued cool temperatures. Or it may hit us directly as a classic Colorado low snowstorm. Finally, it could push farther west and then north, bringing us a shot of warm air and rain.
Unless it ends up not really developing into a strong storm, no matter which scenario plays out, it will likely have a significant impact on our spring melt and any possible flooding. Let’s keep our fingers crossed on this one.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -8 to +3 C; lows, -21 to -8 C.
