The Canadian Wheat Board says its exports for the crop year ending July 31 are at a 10-year high, but that they will be sharply lower in the coming year due to poor crop prospects in Western Canada.
Exports of wheat, durum and barley for 2009-10 will total 18.8 million tonnes, the CWB said at a year-end news conference in Winnipeg. It projects 15.1 million tonnes for the coming year.
The CWB said excess rains have left 10.5 million acres unseeded, and ruined prospects for another 2.5 million acres that did get in the ground. It puts Prairie wheat production at 15.6 million tonnes (18.8 MT in 2009), durum at 2.9 MT (5.5 MT) and barley at 7.4 MT (8.9 MT).
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Net revenue directly to farmers for 2009-10 is estimated at about $4.8 billion, the third highest total in the past decade, the CWB said.
Crop year summary
Source: CWB*
• Preliminary estimate of net revenue returned to farmers: $4.8 billion.
• Exports: wheat (13.6 MT to 42 countries); durum (3.8 MT to 24 countries); malting barley (1.2 MT to nine countries).
• Domestic sales: wheat (2.15 MT); durum (290 000 tonnes) and malting barley (1.1 MT)
• Top-volume wheat customers: Canada (2.15 MT); Iraq: (1.18 MT); Bangladesh (1 MT); Mexico (884 000 tonnes); Japan (880 000 tonnes).
• Exports by port: West Coast (11.5 MT, highest in 10 years); St. Lawrence (4.5 MT); interior rail (1.9 MT); Churchill (529 000 tonnes); Thunder Bay (327 000 tonnes); Atlantic (26 000 tonnes).
• Wheat carryout stocks: 4.4 MT.
2010-11 forecast at a glance:
• Seeding progress: Stalled at about 82 per cent, leaving 10.5 million acres unseeded across the Prairies.
• Production estimates: wheat (15.5 MT); durum (3 MT) and barley (7.4 MT).
• Projected export target:15.1 MT (lowest since 2004-05)
• Price projections (from July’s Pool Return Outlook): wheat ($6.12 per bushel); durum ($5.52 per bushel); barley ($4.66 per bushel).
* All figures are preliminary estimates and subject to change
