I don’t know about you, but June seemed to go by in a flash. It is hard to believe we are halfway through 2022, and depending on where you live across the Prairies, it has been a very interesting first six months.
So, how did the numbers add up for June? Starting in Alberta and using the numbers from Calgary, Edmonton and Peace River, it turns out the southern and central regions had a warmer and wetter than average June, with northern regions seeing a warmer and drier than average month.
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Edmonton reported a June mean monthly temperature about 2 C above average, with both Calgary and Peace River coming in about 0.75 C above average. Rainfall was well above average in both Calgary and Edmonton, with both regions reporting more than 100 mm in June. That is about 40 mm more than their long-term averages. The Peace River region missed out on the heavier rains, with amounts coming in around 75 per cent of average.
In Saskatchewan it was a different story. Both Regina and Saskatoon reported monthly temperatures around average, with precipitation below average to well below average in some regions.
Regina recorded only about 10 mm of rainfall, which is a good 60 mm below average. Saskatoon was a little wetter, with around 40 mm recorded or about 25 mm below average.
Moving to Manitoba, after a very wet April and May, most regions were hoping for a drier June. Unfortunately, this did not happen. Southern regions, including Brandon and Winnipeg, recorded amounts greater than 100 mm, which came in 20 to 30 mm above average. In the Dauphin region it was a little drier, with amounts of about 70 mm or a few millimetres below average. Wet conditions usually equal colder-than-average temperatures, but thanks to a couple of really warm days, the mean monthly temperatures ranged from about 0.5 C above average in Winnipeg and Brandon to a little bit below average in the Dauphin area.
Overall, June was a bit of a bookend month, with western and eastern regions seeing warm and wet conditions while in between, Saskatchewan experienced near-average temperatures and dry conditions.
The big question now is what kind of weather will July and August bring?
Looking at the different forecasts for the rest of summer, it seems like you can simply pick whatever type of weather you want to happen and there is a forecast calling for it. To me, that means confidence in the forecasts is low.
That said, here are the latest weather outlooks for July and August beginning with the almanacs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for cooler and wetter than average conditions in both months. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is calling for warmer than average temperatures along with near average precipitation.
Looking at the computer models, the CFS model is calling for cooler than average temperatures across southern and central regions in July with above average temperatures to the north and west. Precipitation is forecast to be below average. In August, these temperatures are forecasted to warm toward average values over southern and central regions with surrounding areas warming to well above average. Precipitation continues to look on the dry side.
The CanSIPS model is calling for a similar pattern of temperatures but is leaning toward wetter than average conditions in July and near average amounts in August.
Looking at NOAA, it is calling for near average temperatures over eastern regions with above average temperatures in the west. Precipitation is forecast to be near to slightly below average. The Weather Channel is calling for well-above-average temperatures in July and slightly above average temperatures in August. I could not find a precipitation forecast from them.
If we look at all the forecasts together, there are three outlooks calling for cooler than average temperatures over central and eastern regions, one near average, and one above average.
So, odds are in favour of a cooler than average summer. Over western regions, the odds increase for a warm summer, with all the models showing near to above average temperatures.
I guess I should include my meagre attempt. My gut is calling for a gradual warming to above-average temperatures in July and August across all three provinces, with a good chance of seeing near to above average precipitation in July and near to below average amounts in August.
