Price bubbles and commodity markets

Athoughtful new paper from researchers at the University of Illinois marks a significant step forward in research on how commodity futures prices are formed. Until recently, the academic and policy debate about futures price formation has been locked in an acrimonious and polarized standoff between market fundamentalists, who insist all price moves reflect supply-and-demand fundamentals,

CME pares back grain trading hours

CME Group Inc. said March 5 that it plans to pare its nearly non-stop trading cycle for grains and oilseeds to 17-1/2 hours per session after traders complained a move to extend activity had hurt liquidity. CME, owner of the Chicago Board of Trade, sought to shorten the trading day less than a year after


CME expects volume to return in time

Reuters / CME Group’s plan to scale back its trading day for grain contracts will likely provide a boost to volume and liquidity, but traders said it will take time for investors to return to the market. “I think if they compress the hours again… it serves the needs of the customers who actually use


Vitol plans grain market debut, hires Viterra traders

Reuters / Top oil trader Vitol is building a global grains desk and has taken advantage of Glencore’s takeover of Canadian grains giant Viterra to hire a team of its traders, trading sources said Feb. 20. Vitol, which has an annual turnover of nearly $300 billion, will vie for market share along with rival trading


Reflections on the new age of grain marketing

Now there are a few months under our belts, just how accurate were those horror stories about grain marketing post-CWB monopoly?

Much has been written about how farmers will market their grains in the post-single-desk world. Horror stories abound about how the grain companies won’t take the CWB contracts until they have filled their own, pools won’t reflect fair market prices, and farmers won’t have the expertise to market in the new climate. Now that we


CME surveys members on trade hours

The Chicago Board of Trade has launched a survey asking customers whether it should shorten the nearly non-stop electronic trading cycle for grains and hinted that executives had grown less concerned about competition from rival IntercontinentalExchange. The Board of Trade, which dominates agricultural trading with U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options contracts, in May


Live cattle prices end 2012 on a high note

Live cattle prices on the monthly nearby futures chart have rallied to within a couple of dollars of the historical high of $131.05, which was established in March 2012. Long-term charts, such as the monthly live cattle chart illustrated here are invaluable for identifying major price trends, as trendlines and formations on a weekly or

Analyzing the loonie’s move to below par

The Canadian dollar has been trending lower, since it penetrated the lower boundary of the uptrending channel. I have found that chart analysis is a valuable resource for determining the price trend and where support and resistance to the trend may be anticipated. Trendlines During the course of a trend and all the fluctuations which