In the microclimate of my Winnipeg yard, there are some sunny spots that are better for growing tomatoes and shadier areas where lettuce thrives.
There’s one section around the compost bin overrun with raspberries that could use some trimming, but the fruit pairs well with the rhubarb along the fence.
The garden is mostly in, although a new planter box I just built still needs to be filled — probably with zucchini, melons or something else that will just cover it up. With temperatures already hitting 30 C, keeping plants watered and thriving could take some effort.
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Weather
After a bit of a late start in some areas, spring seeding around North America should be nearing completion as the calendar flips to June. All eyes in the markets are now focused on weather conditions through the growing season, especially as irrigation is much less common on farms compared to backyard gardens.
While timely rains have helped take the edge off dryness concerns in the western Prairies, the longer-range outlook into mid-June looks hot and dry. It’s still much too early to write anything off, but timely rains will be key.
Winter wheat crops in the U.S. are largely past the point where moisture would do much good after a very dry growing season. Less than a third of the crop was rated good to excellent in the latest crop progress report, and there are ideas that some fields will be written off. That should be supportive for prices, but wheat futures have trended lower as conditions look better elsewhere.
Charts
Wheat isn’t the only crop trending lower from a chart standpoint. Soybeans, corn and canola are all trading at some of their lowest levels of the past year. Broader global macroeconomic concerns contributed to that bearishness, although there were also supportive signals.
For canola, the nearby July contract fell below the psychological $700 per tonne level in mid-May, while new-crop November dropped below $660. Both contracts are well off their 20- and 100-day moving averages but have not quite hit oversold territory.
Old-crop canola supplies are on the tight side and demand may need to be rationed before the new crop comes off the fields.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released updated supply/demand forecasts on May 23, pegging canola carryout this year at only 650,000 tonnes, with ending stocks dipping to only 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24.
Anything under a million is typically considered tight for canola. Even the drought year of 2021-22 had a carryout of 865,000 tonnes.
However, it’s worth noting that, just as there are always tomatoes to be bought at the farmers market if your own garden doesn’t work out, Australia grew a historically large canola crop this year that should already be displacing some Canadian exports.
