The huge South American soybean crop weighing on North American oilseed values has become something of a question mark.
The Brazil soybean harvest is well underway and reduced yields indicate the once promising crop of more than 160 million tonnes will almost certainly be less than 150 million tonnes. A dry northern half of Brazil coupled with a wet southern half impeded soybean production in 2023-24. That led most analysts to drop their forecasts progressively lower. This year’s production will be less than the 2022-23 record crop of 152 million tonnes.
Argentina soybeans have become something of a wildcard. Initial ideas were for a harvest of well over 50 million tonnes, essentially doubling last year’s drought-stricken crop.
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Canadian canola prices hinge on rain forecast
Canola markets took a good hit during the week ending July 11, 2025, on the thought that the Canadian crop will yield well despite dry weather.
But the El Nino rains have come and gone, with hot temperatures and dry conditions taking hold. So far, there haven’t been any major reductions from analysts or government agencies, but fresh data isn’t far away.
There were thoughts that whatever soybeans were lost in Brazil would be more than made up by a hefty soybean crop in Argentina. Until those numbers start rolling out, that’s up in the air.
To canola on the Intercontinental Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex, this hasn’t necessarily led to price gains. Rather, the impact from South America has been limiting the series of declines for canola and soy.
And down they went during the week ending Feb. 1, with the nearby March canola dropping $21.90 at $601.20 per tonne. In Chicago, the nearby March soybean contract lost 19.75 cents at US$12.0325 cents per bushel, while March soyoil gave up 0.93 of a cent at 45.60 U.S. cents per pound.
Also putting pressure on canola are thoughts that the amount held by farmers is sizeable. The Canadian Grain Commission reported 8.24 million tonnes of canola have been delivered by producers at the halfway point of the 2023-24 marketing year. A year ago, farmers brought in nearly 9.94 million tonnes.
However, the weekly amount coming from farmers has been rising, with almost 443,000 tonnes delivered during the week ended Jan. 28.
That’s due to a certain malaise embedded in the market. Hopes of hanging onto canola for better prices have been dashed by notions of getting rid of some of it now before the prices get worse.
The nearby March contract was very close to its support level of $600 per tonne. When this is printed, there may have been sub-$600 canola to contend with.
The trade will get a good handle on the canola situation when Statistics Canada issues its stocks as of Dec. 31 report on Feb. 8. StatCan will not only confirm how much canola is out there but should provide a good idea of how much came off the fields in 2023.
The crop may be somewhat bigger than the 18.3 million tonnes StatCan estimated. It may even be more than 18.8 million tonnes calculated by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Unless some wildly dramatic global event comes out of the blue, there’s not much to push canola higher. With questions over South American soybeans, rangebound canola may very well be the best one can hope for.
