Not long ago, canola tumbled from its four-digit highs as the markets conceded there were likely a lot more oilseed supplies in the world than initially believed.
The sharp declines in Malaysian palm oil, European rapeseed and the Chicago soy complex pulled the Canadian oilseed well away from those stratospheric levels.
Besides, canola and other crops were looking pretty good across the Canadian Prairies. While there were issues with excessive moisture in the east, they weren’t having a dramatic effect on canola or other crops. Even in dry areas, such as the western Prairies, crops were coming along quite well.
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Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
But what looked good then was by no measure an assurance those crops were going to be good throughout the summer.
Just as the nearby November canola contract fell under C$800 per tonne, the heat came along and rain became sparse. Canola began to ascend, albeit with a few bumps along the way.
But with changing weather conditions during the week of July 20 to 27, that November contract gained $46.40 to close at $863.60.
Just when market chatter was focused on support levels of $750 a tonne, canola turns around, but it’s doubtful they will reach the $1,000-per-tonne mark unless there’s some kind of major catastrophe.
Still, canola continued to receive ample support from the soy complex. The heat and dryness in the U.S. proved to be a tremendous motivator for soybeans, soyoil and soymeal.
As July wrapped up and August began, soybeans reached a critical stage in their growth – one that could easily determine the well-being of the 2022-23 crop. Just as U.S. beans begin to pod, intense heat and lack of rain made their presence known. That could put in jeopardy the 126-million-tonne crop the U.S. Department of Agriculture called for in its July supply and demand estimates.
The U.S. is one of only two countries that top well over 100 million tonnes of soybeans per year, the other being Brazil. Argentina is a distant third at 51 million tonnes. Any production decline in the U.S. means prices are going to rise.
Last week the nearby November soybean contract rose from US$13.015 per bushel on July 20 to close on July 28 at $14.405. While the latter is still under the yearly high of $15.8475 per bushel, it’s well above the year’s low of $11.9225.
All that can be done is to sit back and wait for what comes – be it more heat to dry out crops or sufficient rains to save them. In the meantime, one can wait and see how hard this projected recession will or will not hurt the global economy.
