As the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end. That’s exactly what happened to canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange at the close of trading March 30, as the Canadian oilseed marked its first losses since March 22.
That past Wednesday, the nearby May contract lost $9.40 to close at $720 per tonne, with the July falling $13.80 at $705.70/tonne. The new crop positions as well were down, with the November giving up $13.90 at $683.10/tonne and the January dropping $14.20 at $686.90.
Over the next five sessions, the May went on to add $50 at $770/tonne, with the July up $46.40 at $752.10/tonne.
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Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
The new crop positions saw gains of $41.90 in the November at $725/tonne and $41.80 in the January at $728.70. The muscles behind the upswings were the speculative funds looking to get out of the extremely large short positions they built.
There were hopes that canola would push up to $800/tonne, but with resistance beginning to arise in other vegetable oils, returning to that psychological level will have to wait for another time.
Until then, the trade will look up at the sky and down at the ground. Attention will turn to the weather as spring planting approaches. Going into winter, soil moisture conditions varied across the Prairies, with some areas sitting pretty good and a sizeable chunk of the region on the lacking side.
A below normal snow cover on the Prairies wasn’t much help, and the weather outlook points to normal to below-normal temperatures and relatively dry. That doesn’t set up a great start to seeding. If precipitation isn’t what it needs to be, then it must be timely.
Should there be a positive feeling heading toward planting, prices will likely step back. If things do not look that good for planting, prices should increase.
Other than waiting for those things to unfold, attention will eventually turn toward the crop outlook from Statistics Canada scheduled for April 26.
At the moment, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has projected 2023-24 canola production at 18.5 million tonnes. The United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Ottawa, in a March 28 report, estimated the coming crop to be 18.3 million tonnes. Over the coming weeks there will be a number trade guesses, giving a sense of just where canola could be headed.
