The hardest part of a mid-winter cold snap is predicting when it will come to an end. In most winters, cold snaps last longer than expected, but with this being an El Niño winter, I guess it isn’t surprising that our first major cold snap of the year came to an end just a quickly as it moved in.
For this forecast period, it looks like our weather pattern will undergo a shift back to the mild pattern we experienced at the beginning of the winter. It also looks like the warm weather will stick around for at least a couple of weeks. The million-dollar question is whether we will see another outbreak of cold arctic air, or will we see an early start to spring? Well, if I knew that answer to that, I would be rich, but I don’t think winter is over quite yet.
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Here is the big picture for the next seven or so days. The flow across the Prairies will become more westerly and then southwesterly as a large trough of low pressure digs along the west coast of Canada. This will allow mild Pacific air to flood across the Prairies and by Thursday should push daytime highs across all three provinces towards the zero-degree mark.
As the flow becomes more southwesterly, thanks to a building ridge of high pressure, temperatures will really begin to soar. Expect high temperatures to rise well above zero over the weekend over western regions with eastern regions remaining a little cooler. In fact, by late in the weekend and into the early part of next week, the weather models are showing a very strong ridge building right across the Prairies. I would not be surprised if we see a number of record highs broken should this pattern materialize.
Alberta
A short and sweet forecast for Alberta, that is if you like it dry and warm. If you are hoping for some wet weather, then you may want to stop reading. With a trough of low pressure digging off the west coast and helping to build an upper ridge of high pressure over the province, expect plenty of sunshine along with well above average temperatures. Daytime highs look to slowly increase to around 10 C by the weekend over southern and central regions and around 5 C over more norther areas. Overnight lows will also be mild, dropping to within a couple of degrees of freezing. Winds look to be relatively light due to the ridge.
The question for the last few days of January is–just how warm will it get? For those location that have no snow cover, I would not be surprised to see daytime highs as warm as 15 C. These mild temperatures look to continue right through to the end of the week before the ridge is forecasted to weaken and move off to the east.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
I am going to lump these two provinces together again as their forecast are very similar. As the westerly flow of mild Pacific air pushes into these regions and pumps up against the colder air that is in place, there will be the possibility of light precipitation developing in the form of light snow or freezing drizzle. This precipitation should work its way out of these regions by Thursday, but it may take until Friday for the cloud cover to erode, especially over Manitoba. Daytime highs will start off around -5 C over Saskatchewan and around -2 C over Manitoba. Highs look like they’ll warm by a couple of degrees each day so that by the weekend most regions should be seeing highs in the +2 to +4 C range.
As the western upper ridge continues to build and start to push eastwards next week, we should see a continuation of sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Should the ridge be as strong as forecasted, we could see daytime highs pushing into the +5 to +7 C range–warmer where there is little snow and a little cool where the snowpack is deeper. These warm temperatures look to last until at least next weekend, but I will keep an eye on the models and give an update on the weekend if it looks like there will be any significant changes to the forecast. Unfortunately for those that are looking for more moisture, there looks to be little to no significant precipitation during this forecast period.
