It’s a straightforward forecast for this period as the general weather pattern looks to be pretty quiet. It starts with a large area of high pressure centred over the Great Lakes with a weak area of low pressure over Alberta. The Great Lakes high will put sunny skies and warm temperatures over much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, while the weak Alberta low will bring scattered clouds along with the chance of afternoon showers and thundershowers.
The Alberta low will track eastward into central Manitoba by late Thursday or early Friday, but it will weaken and eventually break down as it exits into northwestern Ontario. Saskatchewan and Manitoba will only see partly cloudy skies from this low, with only the slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
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Over the long weekend, the weather models show the Prairies to be under a light westerly to southwesterly flow. This should result in plenty of sunshine, light winds and warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be running 5 to 8 C above the long-term average for this time of the year. By Monday, the weather models show two areas of low pressure moving into the Prairies. One will be coming in off the Pacific and moving into Alberta, while the other will be moving northeastward into southern Manitoba. These lows will bring some unsettled weather to start September, but chances for heavy rainfall or severe weather look to be low. Both lows are forecasted to lift northeastward, exiting the prairies by Wednesday.
Alberta
A broad but weak area of low pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to most regions on Wednesday and into early Thursday. The low will bring enough instability to trigger scattered afternoon and overnight thundershowers. Temperatures will be warm with daytime highs forecasted to be in the mid- to upper 20s. Once the low drifts off to the east on Thursday a fairly slack westerly flow will develop bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies from Friday to Sunday with daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s and overnight lows in the low teens.
By Monday (Sept. 4), the weather models show an area of low pressure pushing in from the Pacific. This low will bring a good chance of showers and thundershowers first to southern regions on Monday, and then central and northern regions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be a little cooler with daytime highs in the low 20s.
Saskatchewan
Sunny and warm sums up the forecast for much of Saskatchewan. The weak Alberta low could trigger some widely scattered showers or thundershowers on Thursday but other than that expect mostly sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the upper 20s to low 30s right through the long weekend.
Around Monday or Tuesday temperatures will cool down a little bit as the Manitoba low drags a weak cold front southward. Expect daytime highs to drop into the low 20s with overnight lows falling to the low teens. There might be the odd shower or thundershower on Tuesday as the front slides through, but no significant rain is expected at this time.
Manitoba
This region will start off with sunny and warm conditions as the return flow around the Great Lakes high pushes warm air northward. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid- to upper 20s with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-teens. The weak Alberta low will bring increasing clouds late Thursday and into Friday morning, along with some widely scattered showers or thundershowers. This system should clear out by Friday afternoon, setting up a nice long weekend.
Expect plenty of sunshine, light winds, and warm temperatures over the long weekend with daytime highs expected to be in the upper 20s to possibly a few low 30s. Overnight lows will also be mild, only dropping into the mid-teens. By Monday or Tuesday, the weather models show an area of low pressure lifting northeastward out of the central U.S. Currently it looks like this will bring the chance of showers and thundershowers starting late on Monday with the best chance of precipitation coming on Tuesday. The low looks to be out of the region by the start of school on Wednesday.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
