I could have started this forecast off exactly the same as the last one, or the one before, or the one before that. Our unsettled weather pattern continued through pretty much all of last week. While it looks like we’ll see a slightly more stable pattern develop during this forecast period, there will still be some unsettled weather to deal with.
One way to put the unsettled weather into perspective is not by looking at total precipitation but rather by the number of days that have received measurable rainfall. Here is the percentage of days that have reported measurable rainfall during the first 17 days of June (Keep in mind that the average across the prairies in June is about 35 per cent of the days see measurable rain):
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- Peace River: 70 per cent
- Winnipeg: 65 per cent
- Regina: 59 per cent
- Edmonton: 59 per cent
- Saskatoon: 53 per cent
- Brandon: 43 per cent
- Calgary: 35 per cent
Forecast overview
We’re starting out this forecast period with a departing area of low pressure over northwestern Ontario and weak ridging trying to build across the three Prairie provinces. This ridge looks to bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and seasonable daytime temperatures.
A disturbance tracking by to the south over the weekend looks to drag an upper trough across the southern Prairies on Saturday and Sunday. This will bring partly cloudy skies and a few showers and afternoon thundershowers to much of southern and central Alberta on Saturday. Expect increasing clouds and showers over Saskatchewan and Manitoba with shower and thundershowers moving through later in the day, overnight and into Sunday morning.
On Sunday, an area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over central Alberta and then track east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. Areas along this low and north of it will see clouds, showers and cool temperatures. Southern regions will see sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures as warm air is pulled northwards into the low.
This system should pull off into Ontario by late Tuesday, leaving behind a little unsettled air. This should result in partly cloudy skies with a few scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers. High pressure will begin to build in around mid-week and bring with it sunshine and mild temperatures.
Alberta
High pressure slowly building across the southern Prairies will lead to sunny or partly cloudy skies to start off this forecast period. The higher elevation over western regions, combined with a northeasterly flow around the high will help provide some lift. That gives these regions the chance of some afternoon showers or thundershowers. The northeasterly flow will keep things on the cool but pleasant side with daytime highs forecasted around 20 C with overnight lows falling into the 6 to 10 C range.
Over the weekend, the weather models show an area of low pressure developing over central regions. This low will bring clouds and showers to the northern half of the province late on Sunday and into Monday. Skies should clear out by Tuesday as the low tracks into northern Manitoba.
Temperatures over the northern half of the province will remain on the cool side with clouds and showers, while southern regions will experience milder temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid to upper twenties on Sunday before cooling on down on Monday as a weak cold front slump’s southwards.
Skies should be sunny to partly cloudy on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs warming back into the mid-twenties, thanks to the strong summer sunshine.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
These regions should see sunny to partly cloudy skies to start this forecast period as the eastern low pulls off and weak high pressure tries to build in.
With some lingering instability, there is a small chance of afternoon showers and thundershowers on Wednesday along with one last day of below average temperatures. While it looks like it’ll get drier over the next few days, the weather models are showing some instability lingering from Thursday through to Saturday. It looks like most of these days will see sunny starts with increasing afternoon clouds and widely scattered showers or thundershowers. The best chance of showers looks to be late on Saturday.
With the sunny starts to the day and strong summer sunshine, expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid-twenties with overnight lows falling to around 12 C.
Sunday and Monday look to be sunny and warm as strong southerly flow sets up ahead of an area of low pressure moving across the northern Prairies. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper twenties to around thirty degrees with overnight lows falling to around 15 C. There could be scattered thunderstorms late on Sunday and onto Monday morning as a frontal wave attached to the low pushes through, but confidence in this feature is low.
A slightly cooler and unsettled air mass will move in on Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in sunny to partly cloudy skies. Once again, there’s the chance of late afternoon or evening thundershowers. Temperatures will be around average with daytime highs in the mid-twenties and overnight lows falling to around 12 C.
