The big long that has built up in January canola could lead the contract’s price either way on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE Futures). The January presently remains over $1,000 per tonne, as it’s believed spec funds are keeping at such a high level. However, trading will come to an end in that contract — and getting out of could prove to be rather interesting.
One thought is that if other edible oils — Chicago soyoil in particular, along with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil — remain high, the end of the January canola contract won’t be all that traumatic. The other view is that canola at that price can’t be sustained and it must come down.
One telling factor is soyoil, as when canola first busted through the $1,000 barrier several months ago, prices at the Chicago Board of Trade were pushing above 60 U.S. cents/ lb. and then breaking through the 70-cent barrier. Now the December and January soyoil contracts are a little above 59 cents/lb., which may not bode well for canola.
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Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
On the flip side, there’s that pesky tight supply situation with canola, which isn’t going away any time soon. The commercials are going to need canola and there’s not a whole lot of it to go around. Despite uncertainty as to how much of the Canadian oilseed was harvested on the Prairies, it’s a given production was far below the 19-million-plus tonnes for which the markets initially hoped.
An especially hot summer across the region, combined with scarce rain, sapped the topsoil of its moisture and sucked the subsoil dry as well. The odd timely rain brought a smidge of relief, but in the end production has plummeted — and the real question is, how far?
Current estimates place this year’s crop at around 12.8 million tonnes; we won’t know for a few more weeks as to any firmer number. Not until Statistics Canada comes out with its next production report will the trade have a decent enough sense as to how much canola there’s to be had.
Coinciding with that is U.S. Thanksgiving, after which the markets will begin to quieten down as it moves toward Christmas. That slower pace could provide the impetus for soyoil to push higher — or see its values come down — and where soyoil goes, canola is sure to follow.
Exacerbating the situation now has been the horrendous torrent of rain in southern British Columbia, which washed out sections of rail main lines and highways leading to Vancouver. On one side, the number of grain vessels arriving at the Port of Vancouver is increasing. On the other side, the number of rail cars loaded with grain is increasing as well.
While alternatives to the Port of Vancouver are being sought, they likely won’t be enough to provide sufficient relief. That concern has factored into the markets. One notion of relief is that the amount of grain westbound for export has already been significantly curtailed by the smaller-than-expected crops on the Prairies.
