It looks like we’ll have to endure another week or so of cold weather before the weather models finally agree that warm weather will try to move in. After southern regions were brushed by a major late-winter storm on Monday we are left in a cold northwesterly flow for most of this week. Temperatures will start off struggling to make it to the freezing mark for highs, but with the strong spring sunshine highs will slowly warm as the week goes on.
Another strong storm system is expected to develop over Colorado on Wednesday and then push out to the northeast on Thursday and Friday. Currently, it looks like the cool northwesterly flow will save us from getting more late-season snow, as all of the energy from this system is forecasted to stay well to our south.
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The weather models show an area of low pressure tracking across southern and central Manitoba on Sunday, bringing with it clouds and some showers or flurries, depending on the timing of the system. Confidence in this system is not that high. Slightly cooler air will move in behind the system keeping our temperatures well below average to start next week and slowing down the already-slow snowmelt.
Things then start to get interesting around the middle of next week as the weather models have been fairly consistent in developing a large ridge of high pressure to our west. This ridge will have two effects on our weather: first, it will start to deflect the storm system more to the north, and secondly, it will allow warm air to begin to build northward. The one big question with this ridge: how quickly will it move eastward, bringing average to above-average temperatures into our region? Current model runs show the warm weather moving in around next Wednesday. Let’s hope they are finally right!
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 5 to 18 C; lows: -5 to 5 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 25 per cent.
