Summer-like conditions definitely won out over the possible cool, wet conditions for the first half of this forecast period. The warm, dry weather is the result of a split flow in the middle layers of the atmosphere. This is keeping any storm systems well to our north or just to our south. Combine this with a building ridge of high pressure centred over us and it spells warm/hot, dry weather.
This warm, dry weather should last until at least Friday before the models start showing a trough of low pressure making inroads into our region. With our current pattern being a type of blocking pattern, I am not all that confident on the timing of this trough of low pressure. While the models bring in clouds, showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday I wouldn’t be surprised if this system gets held back a few extra days.
Once this trough does finally push through, either over the weekend or early next week, we will see temperature cool down a little bit but I do not see any late-spring cold snap. High temperatures to start the week will be in the upper teens to around 20 C. By the middle of next week the models show another low pushing into our region but I am pretty doubtful on this. Instead I feel we will see more sun than clouds next week, along with temperatures warming back into the low to mid-20s.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 15 to 26C. Lows: 2 to 11 C.