Issued: Monday, April 26, 2010 Covering: April 28 –May 5

It looks more and more like our string of luck with big storm systems missing us will come to an end during this forecast period (or make that “string of bad luck” if you’ve wanted lots of rain and cool conditions).

The models have been fairly consistent with developing a large and slow-moving storm system that looks like it will affect all of southern and central Manitoba during the second half of this week. After a nice mild start to the week it looks like a large area of low pressure will crash ashore over B. C. and then redevelop to our southwest. This low then looks as if it will get really wound up by Thursday and then stall out somewhere in our neighbourhood right through until at least Saturday.

The exact detail on this system is still a little sketchy but it looks like it will bring some soaking rains with general amounts in the 20-to 40-millimetre range, with some regions possibly seeing twice that amount. If I had to guess where the heaviest rains will fall I would say western regions, as eastern regions may see a dry slot move in, cutting off the rain. Again, this is only a guess, as it all depends on exactly how far north or south this system tracks and where and when it slows or even stalls.

Once this system finally moves out we should see a return to some sunny skies but temperatures look like they will be a little more spring-like. Highs for next week look like they will be in the low to mid-teens but with the additional moisture around, overnight lows should be staying above freezing.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 8 to 22 C. Lows: -4 to 7 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 20 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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