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Forecast – for Sep. 29, 2011

You have to love it when the weather models get it right. Last week the models pointed toward a large ridge of high pressure building across our region, and that played out pretty much as predicted. All regions saw plenty of sunshine over the weekend and into the first half of this week, along with nice warm temperatures. Some regions even saw some record-breaking temperatures over the weekend.

It s an interesting forecast for this period, as the battle between warm summer weather and cool fall weather begins to heat up. It seems as if the ridge of high pressure that has brought us all the warm weather over the last few months just doesn t want to give up, at least not without a fight. The weather models show the ridge breaking down or flattening out around Thursday of this week, which will bring cooler temperatures. Highs by Thursday will likely be in the mid-teens, right in the middle of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

By the weekend it looks as if the ridge will re-establish itself across our region, bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures with highs pushing back to around the 20 C mark. This ridge looks like it will hold out until Monday, when a trough of low pressure looks to push through, bringing clouds and cooler temperatures once again. Right now it doesn t look like it will bring much in the way of precipitation, although showers are a good possibility.

From this point forward the models begin to struggle. One model run shows high pressure building back in, bringing sunshine and mild temperatures, while the next run has low pressure moving in with rain and cool temperatures. As usual, only time will tell which forecast will be correct.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:8 to 20 C.Lows:-2 to 7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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