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Forecast – for May. 26, 2011

Last week’s forecast started off exactly as the models predicted, but by the time the weekend rolled around things got a little off track. The weather models had predicted the large area of low pressure that affected us over the weekend, but they originally kept most of the clouds and rain to our south. Unfortunately, the system moved farther north and brought cloudy, rainy and cooler temperatures to most regions over the long weekend.

To begin this forecast period the models show an area of high pressure building south from the Arctic. This high will bring mostly sunny skies for most of this week, along with cool temperatures. Daytime highs will likely be in the high teens to start off, but with light winds and full sun it will slowly warm toward the low 20s by the weekend. Overnight lows will be the big issue, at least to start. With cool high pressure in place we can expect strong cooling to take place each night. This will give overnight lows of between 0 C and 4 C, with a good chance of frost in any frost-prone areas.

Over the weekend low pressure will form to our west. This should bring increasing clouds along with a chance of showers over western and southern regions by Sunday. Winds ahead of this system will become southerly, which will help bring in warmer temperatures and higher humidity. The weather models are having a hard time handling this system. Currently they show showers and thundershowers affecting much of our region on Monday. Then they show the low intensifying over central Saskatchewan and slowly drifting northeast. If this pans out, southern and central regions will see more sun than clouds next week along with warm temperatures. If this system stays farther south, then clouds, showers and cooler conditions will prevail.

Highs:16 to 27 C.Lows:3 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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