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Forecast – for Jan. 27, 2011

It seems like we are in one of those weather patterns where every little system that comes by drops a little precipitation. Usually we only see this in the spring or summer but it looks like this pattern will continue for at least this forecast period.

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the weather models, but this next forecast period it looks like the models are in a little better agreement. With that said, I am still a little hesitant about the forecast, as the models have been trying to develop this pattern for a couple of weeks now and so far the pattern has not emerged as forecast.

Canada will be roughly split in half over the next week or so as an upper ridge develops to our west and a strong trough of low pressure digs to our east. This means warm air will be to our west and cold air to our northeast. We will find ourselves right smack in the middle of these two systems with a strong flow out of the northwest over top of us. In this northwesterly flow the models predict an area of low pressure to drop into central and southern regions of Manitoba on Friday. This system has the potential to drop around five centimetres of snow, with the best chances of measurable snow being over central and eastern regions. Temperatures will be quite mild ahead of this system on Thursday and Friday with highs in some areas breaking the 0 C mark.

Behind this low, arctic high pressure is forecast to build in, bringing a return to cold temperatures to start next week. This high is then forecast to quickly drop south, which would allow another storm system to push in from the northwest around Wednesday of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:-21 to -5 C.Lows:-32 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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