The province’s flood outlook as of April 11 wasn’t much different from expectations in late March, although Timi Ojo, agriculture meteorology specialist for Manitoba Agriculture, said early April snowstorms made matters worse.
There is high risk of a major flood in the Red River Valley between Emerson and Winnipeg, according to Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre.
“It will be a little worse, but not so much because of how much snow we got here in Manitoba,” said Ojo. “More so because of how much fell south of us.”
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The system that dumped a significant amount of snow over the province before the Easter long weekend sat over North Dakota for the better part of a day.
Manitoba didn’t see an excessively snowy winter. In fact, between November and the end of March, precipitation in most of agro-Manitoba was anywhere from 30 per cent to more than 65 per cent below average, according to data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Current flood risk is mostly driven from meltwater flowing north across the international border.
“It’s no surprise that the risk of flooding has been detected,” Ojo said.
He also pointed to the high moisture content of last fall, which has exacerbated the flood situation.
“It wouldn’t take much at all for us to reach the full capacity of the soil, especially in the Red River Valley.”
Spring thaw, while late, officially began across most southern and central Manitoba basins in the second week of April and ice on the province’s waterways was expected to weaken.
On April 13, the hydrologic forecast centre released its first overland flood watch in the Red River Valley, covering Winnipeg and areas east of Highway 75. Added rain was expected, with little infiltration capacity on saturated or frozen soil.
Another overland flood watch was issued along the Fisher River near the Peguis and Fisher River First Nations, with concern that expected rain could cause the river to spill its banks.
Flood risk for the rest of the province is less concerning. It remains low to moderate in the Interlake region and along the Assiniboine River, and low along other rivers, including the Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina.
With the exceptions of Dauphin Lake and Lake St. Martin, most Manitoba lakes are projected to remain within operating ranges after the spring runoff.
Weather conditions in the next few weeks could shift any forecast, the province has cautioned.
