Getting young kids involved with helping around the house is important for their development, building responsibility and growing their skills, but it can also come with plenty of unintended consequences.
Dishes slip out of small hands and break. The soup bowls at the table are paired with dessert spoons. The mirror has more fingerprints than before the Windex came out. Children with a task are unpredictable.
Heading into the prime summer growing season, the grain and oilseed markets find themselves dealing with a similar situation in the weather. Moderate temperatures, sunny skies and just the right amount of timely moisture would be ideal.
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Canadian canola prices hinge on rain forecast
Canola markets took a good hit during the week ending July 11, 2025, on the thought that the Canadian crop will yield well despite dry weather.
However, the actual conditions can be as temperamental as a toddler. With the futures in full weather market mode, making predictions on the price trends can be more difficult than usual — if not impossible.
Weather models change constantly, and the reaction of the trade is also constantly shifting. One day a forecast for rain in a dry area weighs on prices, but then the rain never comes and prices go back up.
While weather will be at the top of the marketing radar until harvest, there are a few other things to keep an eye on, although they may be as equally unreliable as weather forecasts and a child setting the table.
Inflation
Central banks around the world are working to slow inflation and thwart a recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its rates steady in June after 10 straight hikes but hinted at least two more increases are likely.
The Bank of England hiked its rates by more than expected, while earlier in June, the Bank of Canada raised its key overnight interest rate to 4.75 per cent, the highest level since 2001.
All that hawkish talk from central banks has raised recessionary concerns amongst investors, causing speculative money to flow out of some commodities.
Currencies
Interest rate adjustments have a major influence on world currencies, with the Canadian dollar hitting its strongest level in nine months in mid-June. The loonie typically has an inverse relationship with domestic grain prices. A stronger currency usually cuts into domestic prices.
Energy
Energy markets have also seen volatility as they parse through numerous conflicting influences. While the global macroeconomic issues may imply declining crude oil demand, OPEC+ has announced plans to cut production and there are expectations that Chinese demand may be on the rise.
