Manitoba’s latest flood outlook isn’t flagging major flood issues on the horizon.
The February forecast published by the Hydrologic Forecast Centre March 1 put the risk of spring flooding at low to moderate through the province.
Fall soil moisture levels sat at normal to below-normal soil moisture at freeze up, the centre noted. That has since been compounded by normal to below-normal snowfall throughout much of the province. These factors have helped to reduce the chances of flooding.
Read Also
Mazergroup’s Bob Mazer dies
Mazergroup’s Bob Mazer, who helped grow his family’s company into a string of farm equipment dealerships and the main dealer for New Holland machinery in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, died July 6 from cancer.
The report was issued just before an Alberta Clipper brought additional ice and snowfall to the province, especially to the Westman and Interlake regions, over the first weekend of March. The centre said it would be monitoring the system and would include any effects from the storm in its March update.
Heavy precipitation and winds led to widespread highway and school closures as of the morning March 4. Initial reports from community precipitation monitoring network CoCoRaHS on March 4 reported 24-hour snow accumulations ranging from 22.9 centimetres in Virden and 24.1 centimetres in Durban, near Swan River, dwindling to a handful of centimetres near the Red River Valley and Winnipeg. Eastern regions also saw freezing rain and ice pellets.
The extent of spring runoff remained very dependent on coming weather conditions until the spring melt, according to the hydrologic centre.
“The runoff potential is significantly affected by the amount of additional snow and spring rains, first depth at the of runoff, timing and rate of the spring thaw, the timing for peak flows in Manitoba, the United States, Saskatchewan and Ontario,” it wrote.
It noted the chances of flooding would increase with a late thaw and spring precipitation.
Breaking down the forecast by waterway, flood risk on the Red River and its tributaries, including the Roseau and Pembina rivers, is expected to be low-to-moderate risk. There is also a low risk of flooding for the Assiniboine, Qu’Appelle and Souris rivers in western Manitoba and the Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers in the province’s north. In eastern Manitoba, the Winnipeg River and the Whiteshell Lakes System are also expecting little risk of flooding.
There is a moderate risk for the Interlake region with the chance of ice jams on the Fisher and Icelandic rivers.
To the south of Winnipeg, the centre doesn’t expect the Red River Floodway will be needed to offload flows. In Westman, the Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated reduce downstream flooding on the Assiniboine River and to provide sufficient water storage for supply and recreation, the province has said.
The report said the International Research Institute projected equal chances of above-normal, below-normal or near-normal precipitation for most of Manitoba during March, April and May.
