Issued: Monday, October 13, 2008 Covering: October 15 –October 22

The weather page is prepared by Daniel Bezte. Dan has a BA Honours degree in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He has taught climate and weather classes at the U of W, and is a guest climate expert on CJOB’s morning show with Larry Updike. Daniel runs a computerized weather station on his 10 acres near Birds Hill Park, which he plans to develop into a small vegetable and fruit hobby farm.

Daniel welcomes questions and comments at [email protected]

A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out that trying to forecast the weather in this part of the world is tough enough. Add in the fact that it is fall, and that we are trying to create a weeklong forecast on the Monday of each week, and well, sometimes things are just not going to work out for us.

This is what happened with last week’s forecast. About one day after I wrote and sent it in, the models all did a 180-degree turn and developed a Colorado low, which ended up bringing significant rain to much of southern Manitoba over the Thanksgiving weekend. Ah, but the show must go on.

Here is what the weather models are showing for this upcoming forecast period. While it will be pretty difficult to dry things out at this time of year, the models are showing high pressure dominating our region for much of this week and into the weekend. With high pressure in place we should see more sun than clouds along with seasonal temperatures. Daytime highs should make it into the low teens, with overnight lows around zero. While no significant lows are expected, the odd weak front may bring some clouds and the outside chance of a shower.

Early next week the models are showing a broad area of low pressure forming to our west. This should help to keep our temperatures on the mild side, as a good southerly flow develops ahead of this low. Currently, the models are keeping most of the energy from this low well to our north, which should keep us mostly dry, but as we found out last week that can all change.

Looking further ahead, the weather looks to remain on the mild side right to the end of the month, with the models only hinting at a switch to a much more wintry pattern for early November.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 5 to 16C Lows: -6 to 4C

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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