While many fields may need some significant precipitation prior to spring seeding, the long-term forecast predicts near normal levels for the rest of winter.
According to the 2022 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, after the wet spring of 2022, the hydrologic situation improved during the summer and fall months, with normal to below-normal rainfall. In October and November, the southern, western, and eastern basins of Manitoba experienced below-normal rainfall, while the central and northern regions saw normal to well-above-normal rainfall.
The soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up were near normal to below normal for most Manitoba basins, with some central Manitoba and Interlake regions having higher than normal soil moisture due to the precipitation received during the summer and fall.
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“When we compare that to the normal accumulated precipitation for the 30-year average, most regions, with the exception of a few locations in the northwest, have received below-normal precipitation so far this winter,” said Alison Sass, agricultural meteorology specialist with Manitoba Agriculture. And while she points out there are some areas that will definitely need more precipitation to provide them with adequate moisture for seeding, Sass says it’s way too early to start panicking.
“We all know that things can change quickly,” she said.
Along with the near-normal precipitation they’re predicting, weather experts are also forecasting some colder temperatures for Western Canada.
“This is as a result of La Nina, which often results in very cold temperatures across the Prairies,” says Sass.
The polar vortex is likely going to be in play this winter, which would bring even colder weather, but Sass said predictions indicate the impact will likely be felt more strongly in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
“So far this winter, the temperatures are below the 30-year average in much of the southwest and northwest regions and slightly above normal in the central regions,” Sass said.
There have been some pretty significant weather events south of the border this winter. “North Dakota and Minnesota definitely had a few rain and snow storms over the past few months,” said Sass.
According to NOAA, Grand Forks and Fargo have experienced well above-normal precipitation. In December alone, a grand total of 39.9 millimetres of liquid-equivalent precipitation fell on Grand Forks, which is 22 millimetres above normal. Fargo saw even more precipitation, receiving close to 50 millimetres of liquid precipitation in December, which is 27 millimetres above normal.
“For perspective, the majority of Manitoba has shown around 35 millimetres since November 1,” said Sass.
Precipitation forecasts provided by NOAA for the Red River Valley (North Dakota and northern parts of Minnesota) show a 33–40 per cent probability that precipitation in February, March, and April will be above normal.
But despite the higher than normal precipitation levels and higher probability of continued above-normal precipitation south of the border, the risk of moderate to severe flooding in the Red River basin is considered relatively low, according to a January 26 report.
The outlook for spring temperatures and precipitation in most of Manitoba is predicted to be roughly around the normal level. However, as predictions get further away from the present, they tend to become less accurate.
“Basically, we don’t really know,” said Sass.
