Perfect weather is a rarity. Temperatures swing from too hot to too cool, precipitation is too heavy in some areas while other regions remain dry.
Growing conditions across North America this year remain far from perfect, but on average the outlook could be described as OK — and lack of any major concerns has weighed heavily on the futures markets.
New lows: Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade hit their lowest levels of the past year in the days following the Independence Day holiday, with widely bearish trade sentiment resulting in increased selling pressure on any attempts at correcting higher.
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Canola markets took a good hit during the week ending July 11, 2025, on the thought that the Canadian crop will yield well despite dry weather.
Both soybeans and corn in the United States were rated 68 per cent good to excellent in the latest weekly report, well ahead of levels closer to 50 per cent at the same time a year ago. The November soybean contract fell below the psychological US$11 per bushel level, with plenty of room to the downside. The next support comes in at $10.50 per bushel, with $10 a possibility if no major weather scares develop.
September corn fell below the $4 per bushel mark during the week, setting a contract low. The next downside target comes in at $3.75 per bushel.
Wheat: Wheat futures were also grinding lower, with seasonal harvest pressure led by the Black Sea region behind much of the selling. While Russian wheat prices were weakening to bring in export demand, the general price weakness in wheat should also open the door for more global tenders as end users increase stockpiles.
Chicago soft wheat held above major support around $5.60 per bushel in early July. Minneapolis spring wheat hovered just above $6 per bushel. The front-month spring wheat contract has not traded below $6 in three years, making that chart-point a key level to watch. The U.S. winter wheat harvest may be wrapping up, but there is still plenty of time for weather-related moves in spring wheat.
