My neighbour recently had her house painted, transforming the once-drab stucco with peeling green trim into a beautiful rusty red with cream-coloured accents.
Just a few days before the painters showed up, she was still second-guessing her colour choices, but the end result looks great. A fresh coat of paint can do wonders while also brightening up the neighbourhood.
One takeaway from a marketing perspective is that small changes can have a long-lasting effect on the bigger picture.
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Manitoba sees cabbage seed pod weevil surge
Cabbage seed pod weevil has crossed into true canola pest territory in Manitoba this year, following years of minimal population counts
Attention in the Canadian grains and oilseeds sector is firmly on Prairie weather conditions as we move through the height of summer, but activity in neighbouring markets will also have an influence.
World canola/rapeseed
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released updated estimates on world grain and oilseed supplies on July 12. The agency raised its forecast for world canola/rapeseed production in 2023-24 to 87.4 million tonnes, which would be up by 200,000 from an earlier estimate but slightly off the 88.3 million-tonne crop from the previous year.
Of the total, USDA predicts Canada’s canola crop at the relatively optimistic level of 20.3 million tonnes, but most Canadian analysts closer to the situation are already penciling in an 18 million-tonne or smaller crop. Who has the better perspective remains to be seen.
Palm oil
Palm oil is a major driver of world vegetable oil markets and USDA is expecting a rather large crop of 79.5 million tonnes in 2023-24. That would be up by nearly two million from the previous year and well above the five-year average. While production is rising, demand is also forecast to rise. India in particular has shown a strong appetite for palm oil lately.
Sunflowers
Canada is a relatively small player in the world sunflower market but does grow considerably more sunflowers than palm trees.
USDA sees world sunflower seed production in 2023-24 at 54.7 million tonnes, which would be up from the 53 million tonnes grown the previous year but off the 56.9 million tonnes grown in 2021.
Ukraine remains a major world grower, but its production has dropped considerably due to the ongoing war. Russia picked up some of Ukraine’s slack, although movement out of the Black Sea region remains a question.
One last takeaway for watching the markets is to keep in mind that while a paint job can do wonders, structural issues such as weather and geopolitics will always persist.
