Canada is a country whose main exports are hockey players and cold fronts,” according to a quote attributed to former Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau who jokingly added “our main imports are baseball players and acid rain.”
Looking at the current Winnipeg Jets lineup at least, it’s safe to say the trade balance on hockey players has shifted over the years, with non-Canadians accounting for most the current roster. There are also dozens of Canadian baseball players in the Major League, with Canadian-born Toronto Blue Jay Vladimir Guerrero Jr. even winning the 2023 home run derby.
On the agricultural front, Canada has long been a major exporter of grains and oilseeds and that has not changed over the years. Out-of-country movement is an important price-determining factor.
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Wheat
Canada exported 5.5 million tonnes of wheat through the first 14 weeks of the 2023-24 marketing year, according to Canadian Grain Commission data, representing a 7.7 per cent increase from year-ago.
That active export pace is coming despite smaller production, so it will be interesting to see if it is maintained or if prices rise to ration demand. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is currently forecasting a 17 per cent drop in total wheat exports on the year.
Canola
Canadian canola exports through 14 weeks, at 1.6 million tonnes, were running slightly behind the previous year’s pace, but any reductions there were more than made up by increased domestic processing. Crush margins for Canadian processors remain incredibly profitable, with crushers also generally offering much better cash bids in the countryside than their line company counterparts.
However, Canada still grows considerably more canola than can be used by domestic processors and needs to maintain a solid canola export pace. There were about 200,000 tonnes in position for export in Vancouver as of Nov. 5, with another 100,000 tonnes in Thunder Bay.
Chinese demand could be key going forward, and China’s buying was running ahead of the year-ago level as of September, according to Statistics Canada data.
Barley
China has also been a major importer of Canadian barley in recent years, but its purchases so far in 2023-24 are only about a third of what they bought by the same time in 2022-23. The 120,900 tonnes of barley Canada exported during the week ended Nov. 5 marked the largest weekly total in five months, but the total year-to-date movement of 591,800 tonnes was down by 27 per cent.
While Australian hockey player exports remain a rarity, the country is a major barley grower and the recent resolution of a trade dispute between Australia and China will likely see more Australian barley displace Canadian supplies into that market over the next year.
