The United States Department of Agriculture released a slew of data on Jan. 12 that could provide nearby direction for futures heading through the relatively quiet winter months.
U.S. production
The final production numbers for the 2023-24 U.S. growing season placed soybean yields at 50.6 bushels per acre and corn yields at 177.3 bu./ac. Both were well above trade estimates and sparked a bearish reaction in the futures.
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Soybeans fell by 30 cents in the immediate aftermath of the report, touching levels not seen since June. Meanwhile, the data saw corn prices fall to fresh contract lows. The nearby contract hit its weakest level in three years.
Total U.S. soybean production for the year was raised to 4.165 billion bushels, from 4.129 billion in December, with ending stocks raised to 280 million bushels, from 245 million. The carryout is now forecast to be above the 264 million bushels seen at the end of 2022-23.
Corn production numbers were even more surprising to the trade, as average yields were well above the 174.9 bu./ac. estimated in December and the year-ago level of 173.4 bu./ac. Total corn production came in at 15.342 billion bushels, up by 108 million from the December estimate and at the high end of trade estimates.
Projected U.S. corn ending stocks were raised to 2.162 billion bushels, from 2.131 billion in December and well above the 1.360 billion bushel carryout the previous year.
South American production
Updated South American production estimates were also released, with downward revisions to soybeans and corn in Brazil and larger crops in Argentina.
The USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean production at 157 billion tonnes, which compares with a previous estimate of 161 million tonnes and the year-ago level of 160 million tonnes. Argentina’s soybean production was raised by two million tonnes from an earlier estimate, now at 50 million tonnes and double the 25 million tonnes the country grew during the 2022-23 drought.
Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 127 million tonnes, which was down by two million tonnes from the December estimate and off last year’s 138 million tonnes. Argentina’s corn production was left unchanged at 55 million tonnes, which compares with 34 million tonnes last year.
Quarterly stocks
U.S. corn stocks as of Dec. 1 came in at 12.2 billion bushels, which was up by 13 per cent from the same time a year ago and at the higher end of trade expectations. U.S. soybean stocks as of Dec. 1, at three billion bushels, were down by one per cent from the same point the previous year, but also above trade expectations.
The 1.41 billion bushels of wheat in the country as of Dec.1 were down by eight per cent on the year.
Wheat acres
U.S. farmers planted 34.425 million acres of winter wheat this fall, which was down from 36.699 million acres the previous year and below average trade estimates calling for a much more modest acreage reduction.
Of the total, hard red winter wheat area was pegged at 24 million acres, soft red winter wheat at 6.9 million acres and white winter wheat at 3.5 million acres.
