Global grain production to exceed 2.2 billion tonnes, IGC predicts

File photo of wheat being loaded onto a bulk vessel at port in Russia. (YGrek/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — The International Grain Council (IGC) has revised its latest monthly forecast of global grain production down slightly.

The IGC projected global production in 2020-21 to hit 2.218 billion tonnes its April 30 report, for a drop of five million tonnes from its March estimate. The reduction was due to the dry conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region and a slight reduction in South American soybean production. The council still expects an overall increase from its 2019-20 estimate of 2.181 billion tonnes.

With the COVID-19 pandemic hurting global demand, the IGC increased its estimated carryover from March by 1.9 per cent to now 616.5 million tonnes. That made the April forecast 3.6 million tonnes lower than the 2019-20 estimated carry-over of 620.1 million.

Total wheat production for 2020-21 was lowered from the March estimate by almost 0.5 per cent to now 764.4 million tonnes. That’s still above the IGC’s estimated 2019-20 production of 762.1 million tonnes.

The IGC’s global wheat carryover was increased by two per cent from March to April at 280.1 million tonnes. Despite that increase, the carryover remains under the 2019-20 forecast of 296.6 million tonnes.

Corn production was raised slightly by one million tonnes to now 1.158 billion. Compared to the IGC’s estimate of 2019-20 production of 1.119 billion tonnes, corn production was forecast to increase by almost 3.5 per cent.

The IGC increased its global corn carryover by 2.5 per cent to 280.9 million tonnes. However, that remains well below the estimated 2019-20 carry-over of 296.6 million tonnes.

Although record amounts of soybean production are still expected out of South America, the numbers were slightly reduced from previous forecasts.

Therefore, the council reduced its soybean production forecast by little more than 0.4 per cent to now 364.4 million tonnes. Production was now projected to be 7.7 per cent more than the estimated 338.3 million tonnes in 2019-20.

The soybean carryover in the April report was left virtually unchanged at 39.9 million tonnes — almost 4.5 per cent more than the 2019-20 estimated carryover of 38.2 million tonnes.

The IGC’s next monthly report is scheduled for May 28.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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