Glacier FarmMedia – United States corn and soybean crops continued to remain at whatever whims the weather brings, according to John Weyer of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago.
“If we get any kind of weather that is not friendly to the crops, think we can see a short term rally,” Weyer commented, noting that corn and soybeans were presently in a sideways trading pattern.
He added that soybeans were getting a boost from short covering.
The Commitment of Traders report said managed money fund traders were net short 129,600 contracts in Chicago soybean futures and options as of June 25, and were holding a net short of 108,500 contracts in soyoil as well.
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Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.
Meanwhile, speculators were long 87,400 contracts in soymeal.
As for corn, the report said managed money was net short 277,700 futures and options contracts.
Weyer said the support level for soybean’s November contract stood at US$11.05 to US$11.10 per bushel.
For corn, he placed support at US$4/bu., which he said was somewhat of a surprise following the planted acres and grain stocks reports issued on June 28 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He expected December corn to pull back to US$3.90 to US$3.95/bu.
“It looked like we were trending that way and come [July 1], we put supports in and decided to defend that four dollar level in the December,” Weyer explained.
Chicago soyoil was on the rise during the first week of July, as reports pointed to a trade war brewing between Indonesia and China with palm oil likely to be caught up in it.
“Just like any trade disagreement or battle, if there’s a commodity at play…the one who has something then the one who doesn’t is going to look for some alternative sources,” Weyer said.
