Glacier FarmMedia—As the last full of week of April is set to wind down, two factors will determine the course of United States soybean, corn and wheat futures. Those are the rain forecast for the weekend of Apr. 27 and 28, and last day for May futures on Apr. 26, according to hedging strategist Scott Capinegro of AgMarket.net.
Capinegro said the U.S. weather forecast called for small amounts of rain in some regions while other areas are to receive two to four inches.
“Let’s see how the rain falls this weekend and how the market reacts on Monday,” he commented.
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“The guys are out there, yesterday, today and tomorrow, going as hard as they can trying to beat some of this [rain],” he added about the farmers planting their crops.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported corn planting reached 12 per cent complete as of Apr. 21, doubling the amount seeded in a week. Soybeans progressed five points to eight per cent finished and spring advanced eight point at 15 per cent done.
As for winter wheat, the USDA reduced its rating by five points at 50 per cent good to excellent, which Capinegro said was supportive.
He also said the speculative funds were still short and it remained to be seen how things would play out in the market by the close on Apr. 26
“Is the May [corn] going to have this resistance at $4.50 or is the fund money really going to come in and we close higher on Friday, who knows?” Capinegro stated.
The weather elsewhere in the world has been influencing wheat prices, which accounted for some of the sharp increases it has seen this week Capinegro noted. He pointed to India having its lowest wheat supplies in 16 years. As well, there have been reports of the country possibly importing wheat as rains in northern India has impeded the harvest.
Also, Capinegro said parts of Russia are quite dry and Ukraine continues to have its problems stemming from the war.
He suggested that after the weekend of Apr. 27 and 28 that soybeans, corn and wheat prices could chop around until the USDA issues its next supply and demand report on May 10. The report will include the department’s latest planted acre estimates.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
