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Canola Forecast Drops, Wheat Up: StatsCan

StatsCan has reduced its canola estimate to 12.9 million tonnes, still a record high but down from the 13.2 million tonnes in its midsummer survey and well below industry predictions of 13.8 million tonnes.

The revised downward forecast helped ICE Canada canola futures pare earlier losses. Canola production still has upside heading into the final Dec. 6 StatsCan report as the Alberta harvest still has a couple of weeks to go, said analyst Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research.

Total wheat production is now pegged at 24.2 million tonnes, up four per cent from a years ago. The increase was mainly due to a 30 per cent rise in production of durum wheat to 3.94 million tonnes from 2010. The trade had expected all-wheat production of 24.4 million tonnes, including four million tonnes of durum.

The oat harvest is forecast to climb to 2.9 million tonnes, up from 2.5 million tonnes in 2010 and in line with expectations. Barley production is estimated at 7.9 million tonnes, down nearly 400,000 tonnes from its midsummer estimate and falling short of expectations for 8.3 million tonnes.

StatsCan surveyed 14,104 farmers from Sept. 1-9.

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