MarketsFarm — Over the last three to four weeks growing conditions in Brazil have pulled a complete reversal — and that poses a serious threat to the country’s corn crop, according to Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc.
The southern half of the country is now faced with wet conditions, while the north is forced to contend with widespread dryness.
“The Brazil national weather service today declared that the dry season has started. There are areas of central Brazil that have been dry for 20 to 30 days, some even longer than that,” Cordonnier said Monday from his Hinsdale, Ill. office.
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He estimated about 30 to 40 per cent of Brazil’s safrinha (or second) corn crop is at various stages of dryness. As for the soybean crop, he said it has been “disappointing from the get-go and isn’t going to change much going forward” being 85 to 90 per cent harvested.
Coupled with that dryness, Cordonnier pointed to the growing threat of frost. He said there have been three overnight frosts so far in the higher elevations of southern Brazil.
“If it keeps staying cold like this, with the frost coming and going, the possibility is a frost could impact the safrinha corn,” Cordonnier warned, noting such a situation occurred last year.
In CONAB’s monthly outlook released April 7, the agency pegged total corn production in Brazil at 115.6 million tonnes, for a 2.9 per cent increase from its March report. Also, in supply and demand estimates issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on April 8, it estimated total Brazil corn production at 116 million tonnes. That was a 1.75 per cent increase from its March report.
With the reversal of conditions in Brazil and cold, wet conditions in North America, Cordonnier said there could be a lot of movement in the commodities market.
“Any hiccup in Brazil or in the U.S. could make the markets more volatile,” he said.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
