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Starting the transition to winter

Weather forecast for week of Oct. 21

Last week’s forecast started off pretty well, but the expected early-week warm-up didn’t materialize as expected. Instead, we got stuck in a cool to cold northwesterly flow.

This cold pattern looks like it will stick around for pretty much the rest of the month. The weather models are being quite consistent with developing a large trough of low pressure over Eastern Canada and a ridge of high pressure over extreme western regions. This means that eastern regions will see well-below-average temperatures, with western regions experiencing nice mild conditions. For us stuck in between these two main weather systems it means cool and unsettled conditions for the foreseeable future.

For the second half of this week we’ll see a predominantly northwesterly flow across our region along with surface high pressure. This will keep us fairly cool with highs only expected to be around 5 C. With cold air in place we’ll likely see a mix of sun and clouds on most days. Overnight lows will be a few degrees below zero each night, but they could drop down to the -5 to -8 C range if the skies clear right off. It does look like a weak system will drop down sometime on Friday, bringing with it the chance of a few showers or flurries depending on the timing of the system.

Over the weekend the weather models are showing a second and much stronger system riding over the western ridge and then dropping down into our region. Confidence is not high with this part of the forecast, but the current model runs are showing this system intensifying as it moves through southern Manitoba or Saskatchewan late Sunday and into Monday.

This brings the potential to see the first widespread significant snowfall this season. Whether we see snow or not with this system, temperatures are expected to get pretty cold behind this low. Highs for next week are currently forecasted to stay below freezing, with overnight lows, should we get snow, in the -15 C range – Brrr!

Usual temperature range for this period

Highs: 1 to 14 C Lows: -7 to 2 C

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent

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