Warm and cool air battle it out

Weekly weather forecast for Oct. 3

Last week’s forecast started off right on the mark as the area of low pressure forecast to track northeastward through Saskatchewan did exactly as expected. After that low, the weather took a turn the models didn’t anticipate, when a second area of low pressure developed over the central U.S. and tracked into northwestern Ontario over the weekend, bringing significant rain to eastern regions of Manitoba last weekend. After that, all bets were off for the remainder of the forecast!

For this forecast period the confidence in the weather models is not very high as there is little run-to-run consistency. It currently looks like this period will start off with average mid-fall weather conditions, then cool down as we approach the weekend. The models forecast a Colorado low developing Thursday, then tracking to the East-Northeast on Friday and Saturday. This track should keep any precipitation well to our south, but the low will still affect our region, dragging behind it the coldest air of the season. High temperatures by Saturday will only be around 10 C, with a good chance of a killing frost over western regions Saturday and eastern regions on Sunday.

Temperatures then look to rebound Sunday as a large area of low pressure begins to build in over the West Coast, causing our flow to become more southerly. Highs should be in the mid- to upper teens by Sunday afternoon and should continue into the first half of next week. There is even the chance of the odd 20 C high by Tuesday or Wednesday as an area of low pressure approaches from the West.

This low is expected to drag down a cold front as it passes by to our north late next week. Should this pan out as now predicted, the Thanksgiving long weekend will end up being quite cool. So much for a mid-month heat wave!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 8 to 19 C; lows, -2 to 7 C.

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