FOOD SECURITY A shrinking fraction of the world’s major crops goes to feed the hungry
Competition for the world’s important crops — like biofuels, processing ingredients, livestock, meal hydrogenated oils and starches — is sending more of them toward uses other than directly feeding people.
A recently published study, of which I was a co-author, found that in 2030, only 29 per cent of the global harvests of 10 major crops may be directly consumed as food in the countries where they were produced, down from about 51 per cent in the 1960s.
Another 16 per cent of harvests of these crops in 2030 will be used as feed for livestock. This ultimately produces eggs, meat and milk — products that typically are eaten by middle- and upper-income people, rather than those who are undernourished.
When we add the calories locked in crops used as animal feed, we calculate that, by 2030, roughly 70 per cent of all harvested calories of these top 10 crops will go to uses other than directly feeding hungry people.
These profound changes show how and where agriculture and agribusiness are responding to the growth of the global middle class. As incomes rise, people demand more animal products and convenient processed foods. They also use more industrial products that contain plant-based ingredients, such as biofuels, bioplastics and pharmaceuticals.
Crops grown for these uses produce more calories per unit of land than those harvested for direct food use, and that gap is widening. In our study, we calculated that industrial-use crops already yield twice as many calories as those harvested for direct food consumption, and their yield is increasing 2.5 times faster.
What does this mean for reducing hunger? We estimate that, by 2030, the world will be harvesting enough calories to feed its projected population — but it won’t be using most of those crops for direct food consumption.
According to our analysis, 48 countries will not produce enough calories within their borders to feed their populations. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, but they also include Asian nations such as Afghanistan and Pakistan and Caribbean countries such as Haiti.
Scientists and agricultural experts have worked to increase the productivity of food crops in countries where many people are undernourished, but the gains so far have not been enough. There may be ways to persuade wealthier nations to raise more food crops and divert that to undernourished countries, but this would be a short-term solution.
My colleagues and I believe the broader goal should be raising more crops in food-insecure countries that are used directly as food, and increasing their yields. Ending poverty, the UN’s top sustainable development goal, will also enable countries that can’t produce enough food to meet their domestic needs to import it from other suppliers. Without more focus on the needs of the world’s undernourished people, eliminating hunger will remain a distant goal.
Deepak Ray is a senior scientist in global landscapes at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment. This article first appeared in The Conversation and is reprinted under Creative Commons.
