Canola area is seen at 19.4 million acres and wheat will be at 19 million acres
Canadian farmers will plant a record-large area to canola this year as they take advantage of attractive prices and dry conditions, the annual Wild Oats GrainWorld outlook conference heard on Monday.
Canola area will soar to 19.4 million acres, up from 18.65 million acres last year, according to a forecast from FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
“The math is there, it’s attractive for growers,” said Jonathon Driedger, market analyst at FarmLink. “It will get planted as much as rotations can handle.”
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Domestic crushing of Canadian canola is running ahead of last year and exports have also been strong for the oilseed used mainly for vegetable oil and livestock feed.
Wheat area, excluding durum, will rise to 19 million acres from 17.449 million acres last year, the forecast said. Including durum, all-wheat seedings look to reach 23.5 million acres, compared with 21.5 million acres a year ago.
A Reuters poll of 17 traders and analysts earlier this month showed expectations, on average, of 19.5 million acres of canola and 23.6 million acres of all wheat.
Oat area looks to rise to 3.5 million acres from 3.108 million acres a year ago. Barley and durum area look to climb to 8.8 million acres and 4.5 million acres respectively, from 6.472 million acres and four million acres last year.
With dry conditions across much of the Prairies, farmers should be able to plant five million to six million acres of land that were too wet last year, FarmLink said.
If dry conditions persist into planting season farmers could adjust seeding plans. The end of the Canadian Wheat Board’s marketing monopoly over western wheat and barley this year may also affect some farmers’ planting decisions.
Canada is the biggest exporter of spring wheat, durum, canola and oats, which are mostly grown on the Prairies.
While Canadian farmers do not start harvesting crops until August, FarmLink also offered its first production forecast.
It sees Canadian production of 14.057 million tonnes of canola, 20.979 million tonnes of wheat excluding durum, 4.033 million tonnes of durum, 9.779 million tonnes of barley and 2.999 million tonnes of oats. Those forecasts are all higher than last year’s harvests, except for wheat excluding durum and canola, which FarmLink expects to decline modestly.
