Harvest operations across Western Canada were entering the home stretch as families across the Prairies sat down for their Thanksgiving meals. Aside from a few exceptions, only corn and sunflowers were still standing in Manitoba in mid-October.
Canadians will soon be hunkering down for winter, but the harvest is still in full swing in the United States, with Thanksgiving still another month away there.
The U.S. corn harvest was about a third done as of Oct. 6, while soybeans neared the halfway mark. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released much anticipated supply/demand estimates on Oct. 11, with relatively large yield estimates for both crops.
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Corn: U.S. corn yields are now forecast at 183.8 bushels per acre by the USDA, an increase of 0.2 bu./ac. from the September estimate and above trade expectations of a small cut on the month. U.S. corn yields only hit 177.3 bu./ac. in 2023.
Total U.S. corn production for the year was raised to 15.203 billion bushels, which also beat trade guesses but would still be down from the 15.341 billion bushels grown the previous year. Both U.S. and world corn ending stocks saw downward revisions from September.
Corn futures trended lower ahead of the report and remained pointed lower after the release. The December contract briefly traded above US$4.30 per bushel to start October, with that now representing solid resistance. Nearby support comes in at $4.15 and then at the psychological $4 per bushel mark.
Soybeans: Average U.S. soybean yields were pegged at 53.1 bu./ac., which was in line with trade guesses and a 2.5 bu./ac. improvement on the year. While that large crop weighed on prices, the market focus was already shifting to South America. Brazil is just starting to seed its next soybean crop, but lack of moisture is causing delays and concerns.
November soybeans see major support at US$10 per bushel. The September highs of just under $10.70 are the upper limit from a chart standpoint.
