The ICE Futures canola market came out of the Thanksgiving long weekend looking like someone who ate one too many pieces of pumpkin pie. It fell sharply lower and did significant damage from a chart standpoint.
The November contract dropped below psychological support at $600 per tonne and looked destined to head back toward its September lows under $550 per tonne. However, the weakness proved short-lived and bargain-hunting helped take prices higher. A sideways trading pattern is likely in the near term, with canola taking direction from outside markets.
Crude oil: Reactions to the uncertain situation in the Middle East has led to wide price swings in crude oil, with moves in the energy markets spilling to agricultural commodities. The widening scope of the conflict boosted oil prices to their highest levels in months earlier in October, before Israeli assurances that it would not target Iranian oil production sent values crashing lower.
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Canadian canola prices hinge on rain forecast
Canola markets took a good hit during the week ending July 11, 2025, on the thought that the Canadian crop will yield well despite dry weather.
Predicting where oil markets could go is all but impossible in the current environment, making that a wildcard for the oilseeds, including canola.
Palm oil: Palm oil has trended higher since mid-September, hitting contract highs in many months. The delay of European anti-deforestation measures, solid export demand and talk of production issues in Malaysia contributed to the gains. However, the downturn in crude oil was felt in the palm market as the softer crude market reduces the incentive to process palm oil into biofuel.
Soyoil: U.S. oilseed processors crushed a record amount of soybeans in September, but supplies of soyoil in the country still tightened. The December soyoil contract bounced around the 42 cents per pound level during the week, going up one day and down the next with little clear direction.
Rapeseed: European rapeseed futures remain in a steady uptrend, underpinned by weather issues hampering the next crop. Canadian canola looks attractively priced compared to rapeseed, which could open some fresh export opportunities in 2024/25.
