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North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Losses in soy complex mean gains for canola

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Jan. 11 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Monday, reaching new highs as traders moved out of Chicago soybeans and soyoil to buy into the canola spreads.

Despite the sharp increases in canola prices over the last few months, a trader said the oilseed remains very cheap when compared to other edible oils. In turn, that hasn’t stymied the demand for canola despite the danger of very low ending stocks come spring.

There were declines in European rapeseed, but increases in Malaysian palm oil.

At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was lower as its United States counterpart gained strength. The loonie was at 78.28 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 78.71.

There were 36,818 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 31,350 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 28,116 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Mar 672.80 up 7.60
May 658.20 up 4.70
Jul 643.10 up 3.20
Nov 546.50 up 1.30

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly lower on Monday, as the markets position ahead of tomorrow’s supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Average trade guess expect ending stocks for soybeans in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) to be at 139 million bushels, a drop of 20.6 per cent from the December report.

As well the USDA is to issue its grain stocks as of Dec. 1 report on Tuesday. Expectations are for soybeans to come in at 2.9 billion bushels, down more than 10 per cent from December 2019.

World soybean stocks are pegged at nearly 82.7 million tonnes, down from 85.6 million in December.

Pre-report expectations are that the USDA will slot Brazil soybean production at 131.4 million tonnes and 48.4 million tonnes for Argentina.

The USDA announced a private sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China with delivery to be during the current marketing year.

The department also reported soybean export inspections for the week ended Jan. 7 of about 65.4 million bushels, up one per cent compared to the previous week.

CORN futures were lower on Monday, also due to positioning ahead of the USDA reports.

The markets predict a cut in corn ending stocks of about six per cent on Tuesday, putting them at 1.6 billion bushels.

Corn stocks as of Dec. 1 are thought to be around 11.95 billion bushels, for an increase of 5.5 per cent from a year ago.

World corn stocks are expected to be around 283.5 million tonnes, down from the 289 million tonnes last month.

The USDA reported a private sale of 108,500 tonnes of corn to Colombia with delivery to be during the current marketing year.

Export inspections of corn were approximately 44.5 million bushels, increasing 3.8 per cent from the previous week.

Argentina lifted its corn export ban and replaced it with a 30,000-tonne per day export sales restriction.

WHEAT futures were down on Monday, following soybeans and corn.

Wheat ending stocks are expected to slip by 0.35 per cent at 859 million bushels.

Wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 are projected to be 1.7 billion bushels, down by almost eight per cent from December 2019.

World wheat stocks are believed to be 315.34 million tonnes, lower than then 316.5 million in December.

Projections for wheat planting in the U.S. in 2021 include winter wheat at 31.5 million acres, hard red wheat at 22.1 million, soft red wheat at 5.9 million and white wheat at 3.5 million.

The USDA said wheat export inspections were almost 279,400 tonnes, falling more than 41 per cent from the previous week.

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Futures Prices as of January 11, 2021

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton



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