The ICE Futures Canada canola market ignored St. Patrick’s Day during the week ended March 17, with no green on any of the board as prices fell below major chart support.
The May contract dropped below the 200-day moving average, at $508 per tonne, which brought in additional fund selling and saw values hit their lowest levels in five months. The funds reportedly moved from a net long position to a net short position during the week.
The next downside target comes in at $500 per tonne, with the next real support after that not seen until $480.
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Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
Declines in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex contributed to the selling pressure in canola, as the large South American crops start to become more readily available.
Day-to-day shifts in South American weather still have the potential to trigger short-term swings in the U.S. futures, but the bigger picture appears relatively set as production estimates out of Brazil and Argentina are generally getting bigger.
North American weather conditions should also start to become a factor to watch, as snow recedes in Canada and farmers in the southern U.S. are already in the early stages of planting corn. U.S. soybean acres are generally expected to be up on the year, and if there are issues getting the corn crop in the ground, even more acres could swing to beans.
While there is little supportive news in the canola market, concerns over tightening nearby supplies should help limit the downside.
About a million tonnes of canola were left to overwinter in Western Canada this year, according to some estimates. How much of that will be salvaged remains to be seen, but even if it does come off, the quality will be questionable as well.
Both exporters and domestic crushers continue to show solid demand, which will need to be rationed going forward as ending stocks are already forecast to be rather tight.
In the U.S., while soybeans were down during the week, grains were mixed. Chicago corn and Minneapolis spring wheat both moved higher, while the winter wheats posted small losses.
Good export demand kept U.S. corn underpinned, while wet weather across parts of the Midwest was just enough to raise concerns over seeding delays.
For spring wheat, some of the strength likely stems from the Canadian situation, where any wheat that overwintered is unlikely to even be fit for the feed market.
However, the international picture remains relatively bearish as far as wheat is concerned, with ample supplies keeping a lid on the lower-quality winter wheat futures.
