Chicago | Reuters — U.S. corn futures fell to their lowest price since early 2021 on Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected a larger-than-expected domestic crop and rising supplies, analysts said.
Soybean futures tumbled after USDA’s forecast of 2023-24 soy ending stocks fell above a range of trade estimates, and wheat futures were pressured by a larger-than-expected U.S. production figure in the department’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE).
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Chicago Board of Trade December corn settled down 17-3/4 cents at $4.83-3/4 per bushel after falling to $4.81-3/4, the lowest price on a continuous chart of the most-active corn contract since January 2021 (all figures US$).
CBOT November soybeans ended down 32-1/2 cents at $13.27-3/4 a bushel, and September wheat fell 27-3/4 cents to finish at $6.32-3/4 a bushel.
Corn futures fell after USDA put the U.S. 2023 corn crop at 15.32 billion bushels, up from 15.265 billion last month and above an average of analyst expectations for 15.234 billion. USDA cut its U.S. corn yield estimate to 177.5 bushels per acre, down four from last month, reflecting the impact of dry conditions in June, but the lower yield was offset by a larger plantings estimate.
USDA also raised its forecast of U.S. 2023-24 corn ending stocks by five million bushels, to 2.262 billion, in line with trade expectations and up significantly from the 1.402 billion expected at the end of 2022-23.
For soybeans, USDA lowered its 2023 soybean harvest projection to 4.3 billion bushels, down from 4.51 billion previously but still toward the high end of trade expectations. The agency left its soy yield forecast unchanged at 52 bushels per acre.
Significantly, the government’s forecast of U.S. 2023-24 soybean ending stocks, at 300 million bushels, came in above even the highest in a range of pre-report estimates.
“This was a huge paradigm change,” Marex Capital analyst Charlie Sernatinger wrote in a client note. “We went from thinking that new-crop domestic (soybean) stocks would be at pipeline levels, to actually growing season to season,” Sernatinger said.
USDA also surprised analysts by raising its estimate of the U.S. 2023 wheat harvest to 1.739 billion bushels, up from 1.665 billion in June and above a range of trade expectations.
— Reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.
