StatsCan expected to confirm tight canola stocks

Statistics Canada will release its grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report on Friday, which will help finalize supply/demand tables for crops produced during 2011-12.

Market participants will be looking to see if there have been any adjustments to production by the government agency, and how tight canola stocks have become.

"The important numbers will be the usage pace, especially for canola since exports and domestic demand have been running at some pretty high levels," said Ron Frost a grain/oilseed analyst with Frost Forecast Consulting of Calgary.

Jerry Klassen, manager of the Winnipeg office for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Produits, said the 2011-12 production forecast for canola will be raised, which in turn should help to push up the ending stocks forecast for the crop.

The output numbers for canola, oats, canaryseed and lentils were believed to be understated by the government agency, he said.

"There will be a lot riding on the stocks projection for canola, given that canola output in 2012-13 is looking like it will be hard pressed to match the government agency’s forecast of 15.4 million tonnes," Frost said.

A canola stocks estimate below one million tonnes will be considered as tight, said Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada.

Canola supplies on farm and in commercial positions at the end of July, and the end of the 2011-12 crop year, were projected to be in the 600,000- to 1.2 million-tonne range.

Ken Ball, a broker with Union Securities in Winnipeg, said that besides the canola usage figures, participants will also have an eye on the usage of wheat and barley, particularly as a feed.

"Demand from the U.S. for Canadian feed-quality products has been strong given that U.S. corn values are at record-high levels," he said. "This should make the usage numbers quite interesting."

The pea supply situation in Canada was also expected to be extremely tight, given that production of the crop in 2011-12 was below normal and exports to India were much higher than anticipated, Jubinville said.

— Dwayne Klassen writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Preliminary estimates for some crops included in the Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report scheduled for release Sept. 7. Figures are in millions of tonnes.

  Total stocks, Total stocks,
  July 31, 2012: July 31, 2011:
  Trade estimates Actual
All wheat 5.300 – 6.700 7.176
   Durum 1.200 – 1.500 1.583
Canola 0.600 – 1.300 1.718
Oats 0.500 – 0.800 0.769
Barley 0.600 – 1.700 1.441
Flaxseed 0.100 – 0.250 0.194
Peas 0.100 0.350 0.535

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