MarketsFarm — Among the changes Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) made in its November supply and demand report, issued Friday, the most notable were among the dry peas.
The revisions that stood out the most were 2022-23 dry pea exports being cut by 200,000 tonnes at 2.5 million, while domestic usage was bumped up 50,000 tonnes at 751,000. That saw AAFC raise the carryover for dry peas by 50,000 tonnes at 751,000. The department kept this year’s production at 3.59 million tonnes.
MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville viewed the changes as a reflection of what’s happening in China, as repeated outbreaks of COVID-19 in various parts of the country continued to stymie its demand.
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Jubinville projected Canada to export 1.5 million tonnes of dry peas to China, with 500,000 tonnes heading to the U.S. and the balance among its other customers.
“Much of this would’ve been booked early in the season, meaning a limited need for Canadian pea prices to be demand expansive, but price needn’t be such to ration either. There is the potential threat of Russia muscling Canada out of some portion of the China market, but that has largely failed to launch yet,” he said.
He noted China has a limited capacity to wait for cheaper dry peas from Russia and could need to import from Canada regardless of the price, despite China’s weaker demand.
While AAFC reduced its dry pea export call, Jubinville said he’s staying at 2.7 million tonnes for 2022-23.
Over the course of the last seven days, prices for green peas on the Canadian Prairies gained 25 cents per bushel, while those for yellow peas were steady, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Green peas fetched $13-$14.25/bu. delivered, with yellows at $12.19-$13.25/bu.
Among the other tweaks in AAFC’s report were 2022-23 dry bean exports being cut by 23,000 tonnes at 327,000 and its domestic usage trimmed 2,000 tonnes at 78,000. That added 20,000 tonnes to the carryover at 135,000.
Also, chickpea exports for 2022-23 were increased 30,000 tonnes at 180,000, which meant ending stocks were cut by the same amount at 110,000 tonnes.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
