Organic grain prices held steady in December, as industry participants reflected on the past year and considered what a new administration in the United States could mean for the North American markets in 2025.
“(Prices) are in a holding pattern until we know what’s going to happen with the U.S. situation,” commented Harro Wehrmann of Wehrmann Grain and Seed Ltd.
The threat of tariffs emerged after Donald Trump won the United States Presidential Election. In late November, Trump stated he would impose a 25 per cent levy on all goods the U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day as president come Jan. 20.
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Wehrmann added Trump’s threat has already put the brakes to a lot of organic grain exports to the U.S. as the market waits until the issue is resolved one way or the other.
Meanwhile, Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada suggested the tariffs might be somewhat overblown.
“If we do see tariffs once Trump gets in, they won’t be as high as been talked about and some people believe there won’t be any tariffs on ag products,” he said.
However, it’s not only the ‘Trump effect’ that has prices for a number of organic crops standing pat.
“The demand ain’t there,” commented Jason Breault of RW Organics in referring to organic wheat as many buyers are covered likely through to March-April.
He said recent and future interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada could help the industry. On Dec. 11, Canada’s central bank reduced its key lending rate by 25 basis points. Also, Breault said a weaker Canadian dollar would be helpful to organic grains exported to the U.S.
Breault added he hopes prices for wheat don’t fall much further as that could lead to farmers leaving the organic industry.
Jason Charles of Charles Commodity Consulting said he’s seen almost no current bids for organic grains, expect for yellow peas.
“Buyers are mostly bought through to March. I expect things to be slow for the next 90 days,” he commented.
Charles noted that over the course of 2024, he estimated organic grain prices dropped 25 per cent, although production was average and demand reasonable.
Richard Reimer of Grasslands Brokerage and Consulting suggested prices for organic wheat could ease back by spring. However, he said lentil prices are higher because of demand outstripping the supply.
“The Northern U.S. and Western Canada experienced really low yields this year and we can see higher prices carry into 2025 for old crop and higher than average new crop contracts until more producers choose to put acres into the ground,” Reimer said.
As for organic feed prices, he said those will likely soften in 2025 because of the availability of corn and hard red spring wheat.
