ICE weekly outlook: Seasonal uptrend possible for canola

CNS Canada — ICE Futures Canada canola contracts trended higher over the past month, but appear to be running into resistance from a chart standpoint.

Seasonal price trends, however, should see values continue their uptrend over the next month.

The most-active November contract has now traded above the $500 per tonne level for five straight sessions, but failed to settle above that resistance level each time.

While that psychological mark is holding for now, the price could easily climb another $15 per tonne higher, according to Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg.

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With the Canadian canola harvest nearly complete and the U.S. soybean harvest about half done, he said the market was entering the stage where farmer deliveries into the commercial pipeline slow down.

Oilseed markets typically move higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (Nov. 23), he added.

While the commercial pipeline is well stocked for now, demand is also solid from both domestic crushers and exporters, according to Jubinville. End-user buying interest may first show itself in improving basis levels, he said, before showing up in the futures.

If speculators jump in, canola can go even higher, he said, adding that $530 per tonne would be “the gold-standard top.”

Beyond the seasonal uptrend, Jubinville said South American weather conditions, Chinese demand and the possibility of a La Nina developing were all additional factors the market would be watching.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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